Wednesday, May 31, 2006

The Bird's philsophy to life - Decision Making in Uncertain Environments

Life for humans is a planned exercise.You plan for your education, your job, plot for your next one, arrange your marraige, contemplate your housing mortgage, think about your next car, analyse your kid's futures, and offcourse plan for your retirements.

Contrast this with a bird. One who get's up every morning, not knowing where the next meal will come from.They just know a couple of simple dictums , The Early Bird shall catch the worm and the fittest shall survive.Is stratergy about planning in a very certain context to reach or attain certainities or " Goal Posts" in life , or is stratergy about decison making in an extremely uncertain context to paint your future in a canvas without knowing its final outcome.

The sufi saints in kashmir had a very unique exercise that they performed every day to remind them about the latter and the uncertainity of future. They would spend some time in a coffin every day . What a rude way to remind u about a human's greatest uncertainity which no planning can remove or delay.Try reading 'veronika goes to die' a story about a woman who has failed suicide attempt and as a consequence has a month more to live.

Ben Affleck in Paycheck said , You take away people's future if you tell them their futures.

The human civilisation has throughout its evolution tried to bring more predictability in life , off course at the cost of uncertainity.No wonder many movies and books predict doomsday along with the creation of a machine that predicts future.

Taking the same argument to organisations, haven't the pressures of Stock Exchanges and the presure to live upto market expectations quarter on quarter made organisations more process oriented. Predictability attracts a premium and uncertainity a discount.Doesn't that make an organisation less risk averse.

Works got to become more documented. Mavericks don't work. Doesn't process orientation and need for certainity hamper creativity.

Therfore no wonder innovation today generally takes place at fringes. The SONY of walkman fame, missed the i-pod boat. There network walkman is strictly passe. Did it become too large to have an aversion to uncertainity.Would apple continue its innovative streak with an increase in its bottom and top line.

Have humans too in their quest for acheiving all goal posts become the same. Therfore aren't the most innovative and risk taking people generally thoose forced onto one corner.

I would think it would be good to take a leaf out of the bird's book and try digesting slightly greater unpredicatbility. Think I would try it by first applying the same principle to myself.Practise be4 u preach :-)

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